Only a few weeks remain in the season. The team started strong but has a couple of losses in recent weeks, and at times in those losses and even in their wins, has looked awful. Our guards are getting beat off the dribble. One of the players who was supposed to be a star is playing injured. Another guy is a question mark as to whether he'll be able to come back from an injury. 2011, right? Well, actually you could say the same thing about the 2005 'Hawks.
On February 15, 2005, KU had two losses (20-2), and was ranked second in the polls. On this day, in 2005, the 'Hawks were considered a front runner for a deep run in the NCAA tournament. Keith Langford was struggling to come back from an injury he'd suffered in 2004, and Wayne Simien was nursing a bad shoulder (seemingly his entire KU career). But, dspite the injuries, it was a deep team, and there was no reason for anyone to panic. The team imploded; a rift between the last vestiges of the Roy Williams era and Bill Self's first batch of recruits became a chasm as the season wore on. They would only win 3 more games, limping their way across the finish line to a 3 seed and a first round upset in the NCAA Tournament.
The similarities are striking. On February 15, 2011, the Jayhawks sit #1 in the polls (on their way down to fifth or sixth), at 23-2. Thomas Robinson is injured and there is serious question as to when, and to what extent he can recuperate from mid season knee surgery. Josh Selby isn't nearly the player 'Hawks fans expected him to be; then again, he hasn't played healthy all year, and may never get healthy. While this team appears to play well with each other much better than the 2005 bunch, at times, they play more like a group of individuals keen on personal stats than as a synergistic unit.
KU is at a cross roads. They know- or should know- exactly how good they are- and aren't. They know what they need to fix, and they have the personnel to fix it. Offensively, they're very good. They shoot well; they move the ball well; and even when not at their best, their offense keeps them in games. In both the Texas and K-State losses, the 'Hawks' offense was adequate. It's unrealistic for a team to expect to be perfectly efficient every night, or to shoot with an EFG% of over 50 every time. In short, you can't always rely on outshooting or outscoring people in order to win games. You need defense.
Even prior to the K-State loss, KU's perimeter defense had been awful. Iowa State and Colorado both shot lights out from 3 (in Iowa State's case, their 3 FG% was better, not only than their 2 FG%, but than their FG%, which was under 50%). There was a time when KU's 3FG% defense was top 5 in the country. It's currently 8 and dropping. Their guards are not fronting well at all. They chase players around on defense, which means they aren't paying attention to the scouting reports. The result is that while KU has played good defense on the post and in the paint, they've left open too many perimeter marksmen.
They've been able to overcome this with depth, and exceptional shooting on their own offensive end; but it cannot continue. If KU's perimeter defense does not improve, they'll get bounced by the first team they meet in the tournament with decent guard play. As to the depth, this has been a blessing and a curse for KU. Against K-State, KU almost came back, in the first part of the second half. They cut the lead to 5, and had several of K-State's big men in trouble. This was vintage Bill Self: wear 'em out; foul 'em out. Except this time he wasn't playing with a full deck. He didn't have Robinson, and what he had of Selby was useless.
All too often, the last several years, when KU's starters have been less than stellar, the bench has been able to pick up the slack. I would guess that KU's bench has been worth anywhere between 4 and 8 wins every year since 2006. KU won a National Championship in 2008 with its bench. Sasha Kaun was the leading scorer in the Davidson game. Cole Aldrich allowed Kaun, Arthur, and Jackson to sit on the bench in foul trouble while UNC was attempting a comeback. And last, but certainly not least, Derrick Rose played all 45 minutes of the Memphis game. Neither of his counter parts had more than 35 (Collins had 34; Russell Robinson had 20). Think that may have had something to do with him clanking that free throw? I do. You don't think Russell Robinson (or, more correctly, the ability to play either Russ or Sherron- or, for that matter, Chalmers) absolutely shutting Rose down in the first half was key to KU winning that game? I do. You know how many point Kansas outscored Memphis by after Joey Dorsey fouled out? I do: 13. 13 points in 6:23. So, yes it's very nice to have depth.
It's even nicer when you don't use it as a crutch. When you don't use depth as an excuse for your starters not giving their best effort. I think, sometimes with this team, there is so much talent, and so much depth, that guys become complacent. They think they don't have to give their very best; that someone else will pick up the slack. Likewise, I think they sometimes think that it's okay to not play their best because most nights they can just outshoot or outscore the other team. That's where they need to improve.
I opened this blog by comparing 2011 to 2005, but the point was to illustrate a team at a cross roads; a team that could go in either of two directions. In 2008, Sherron Collins played ineffectively due to a hand injury much of the year. Never a great defender, and at times a careless dribbler, Collins struggled to shoot the ball much of the year. Brandon Rush, recovering from knee surgery, was, at times, awful. He would have games where he'd hardly score, and either play with foul trouble or foul out. Three years ago, today, KU stood at 23-2, following a loss to Texas, and a previous loss to K-State in Manhattan. Both games, KU's guards were out played. There was question as to whether the team would come together, or whether it was going to be a lost season and a badly squandered opportunity. There was question as to whether KU's guards could play defense; whether they would be effective enough on offense. There was question as to who that team's leader was. They played 15 more games...and only lost one.
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