I get this feeling about Rick Perry. It has nothing to do with his politics (although I do think his politics make him unelectable). It's a feeling I got about Sarah Palin. The same one I had about Howard Dean- and the same one I had about George Allen. It's that he'll never be President because he doesn't know when to keep his mouth shut.
Every politican makes gaffes. Barack Obama talks about 53 states and guns and religion. Joe Biden and either President Bush could have books written about their misquotes. Bottom line, if you do enough talking- and politicians are paid to talk- you'll say something you didn't entirely think through, or that came out wrong, or that you didn't mean. Good politicians avoid gaffes as much as possible; great ones cover them quite eloquently. However, all politicians who attain an office as high as President or Vice President do so because they are able to avoid the big gaffes. In short, there is a line, and they NEVER cross it, no matter how stupid the things they say may be.
Even George W. Bush understood this. There are some things you just never say in politics. I knew, after watching Palin's acceptance speech that she wasn't qualified for the office of Vice President. She spent the entire speech talking from the point of view of a victim of the media. Instead of talking about who she was, she talked about her critics. She offered nothing of substance. Sure enough, a few weeks later, when Katie Couric interviewed her, it was over. The interview wasn't unfair. Couric asked nothing of Palin that she wouldn't have asked of Biden; nothing that Obama didn't endure in his interview with Bill O'Reilly. All of Couric's questions were fair- and entirely predictable. When you talk about having foreign experience, guess what you're going to be questioned on? And even if you don't talk about a particular issue, when you run for an office like VPOTUS, guess what? ANYTHING is fair- even if the question itself isn't. Presidents and VPs get asked loaded questions all the time. If you can't take the heat, leave the kitchen. By making herself a victim, I knew it was only a matter of time before Palin destructed. She spoke to what a lot of conservatives where feeling- being picked on- but, in the words of Peggy Noonan, she was just saying things, without regard to what her words meant or why they resonated: she was talking to hear herself talk.
Dean came across as a know it all. A good man, for sure, but you got this feeling that as soon as Dean achieved a certain level of success in his campaign, he would feel like he was above politics' unwritten rules. Hence, his "I have a scream" speech.
As for Allen, his persona was that of an overprivileged frat boy. Like Dean he perceived himself as above the rules. Here is where Bush benefited from a lifetime of being in the political eye. He knew instinctively that there while almost any act is forgiveable (see Kennedy, Edward Moore), some words can never be taken back. No matter how much his admininstration hated abortion, he always stopped short of saying it should be illegal, per se. Same with gay marriage; hence, his civil union concession. Allen had a different pedigree- that of a football coach who would say whatever was on his mind. Like Dean and Palin, Allen just coudln't get enough of himself. He thought Macaca was cute, and likely, had no idea uttering that word would cost him his job.
The common denominator with all three is that they like talking for the sake of listening to themselves. This is the vibe I get with Perry. It's why I think he's reluctant to debate his opponents. It's why he made comments about secession. I understand the "liberal media" may have twisted his words, but when you talk about having the right to leave the Union, what are people supposed to think? You just don't go there, and most politicians know this. Also, FWIW, I think he knew exactly what he was saying- I just don't think he understands that it only takes a couple quotes like that (or even one) to make yourself unelectable. It's like in the Godfather when Vito tells Sonny not to let anyone outside the family know what he was thinking. Speaking your mind may make a certain group of voters think you're honest and telling the truth, but if it's a boarish thought, you'd best keep it to yourself, lest you alienate everyone else. And what's popular among certain Texans may not be popular among all Americans. I get that it's popular with a certain brand of conservative- but the public at large? What if he'd made a comment like that in an acceptance speech or a debate? He'd be finished. And that's the thing. I get this feeling that Perry's just a little too loose with his words. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just have this feeling that I can't really explain.
It's a feeling that either before he's nominated or after (in the event that he, indeed, is), but sometime before next year's Election, that he'll just say the dumbest thing at the worst possible time...and it'll cost him.
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